India unlikely to achieve targeted 15% share of gas in its energy mix

India is unlikely to meet its goal of increasing the share of natural gas in its energy mix to 15% by 2030, said Spencer Dale, group chief economist, BP Plc.

He said industrial use would lead the growth in the natural gas consumption in the country. “In our (outlook) scenarios, the share of natural gas doesn’t increase. It increases a little bit but doesn’t go to 15%; it goes (to) about 7-8%, but doesn’t increase significantly more. I think there is scope to grow natural gas, even more in India, particularly in terms of natural gas within industry.”

Noting that India has taken several measures to boost the use of natural gas, he said: “And I think part of that story is continuing in the regulatory forms that the government has already done so far in India. There have been huge reforms in terms of gas regulation, which are helping to support the growth of gas.”

The Indian government has set itself an ambitious target of increasing the share of natural gas in the country’s energy basket to 15% by 2030 from the current 6%. Natural gas is considered a cleaner fuel compared to oil and coal.

Dale said oil demand in the country is expected to rise in the years ahead and the growth rate will be higher than the global trend.

Dale said that while global oil demand is expected to flatten within a decade, demand in India will plateau only in the mid-2040s.

He further said that the use of oil in the petrochemical industry would increase in the coming years as transportation gradually moves towards electricity mobility.

On the projection for oil prices and supplies in the short term, Dale said the global market continues to remain worried about the conflict in West Asia.

“In terms of the fundamentals of the outlook, most of the consensus for the next year is that oil demand continues to grow. But many of those outside forecasts also point to strong growth in ‘non-Opec+’ supplies, with many of those scenarios suggesting this would largely meet the growth in overall demand.”

He noted that the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada are among the emerging non-OPEC crude suppliers.