OPEC expects share of Indian oil imports to rise again

OPEC is set to win a bigger share of India’s oil imports in coming decades due to the proximity of its supplies, the producer group’s head said, after its dominance was recently eroded by competition from discounted Russian oil.

The share of oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imported by India declined from about 65% in 2022 to 50% last year, according to industry data, after New Delhi became the biggest buyer of seaborne Russian crude in the aftermath of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

OPEC members and other producers must adapt to changing market dynamics due to the “redirection” of trade flows since early 2022, with more Russian oil supply to India and elsewhere in Asia, Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC’s secretary general, said in an emailed response to Reuters questions.

OPEC supplied 54% of India’s imported oil in January, according to industry sources.

India plans to expand refining capacity to 9 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, from 5.02 million bpd currently.

India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, is forecast by the International Energy Agency to be the world’s biggest oil demand growth driver through 2030.

OPEC expects Indian demand to more than double by 2045 to 11.7 million bpd.