EIA predicts continued strong exports for ethanol through 2026

The US Energy Information Administration maintained its forecast for 2025 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released January 14. The agency revised up its estimate of 2024 fuel ethanol blending. 

The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 1.05 million barrels per day in 2025, a forecast maintained from the December STEO. The January forecast includes the agency’s first short-term outlook for 2026 fuel ethanol production, which is currently forecast at 1.04 million barrels per day. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.05 million barrels per day in 2024. 

On a quarterly basis, the EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.04 million barrels per day during the first and second quarters of 2025, increasing to 1.05 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.06 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2026, fuel ethanol production is currently expected to average 1.05 million barrels per during the first quarter, 1.03 million barrels per day during the second quarter, 1.04 million barrels per day during the third quarter, and 1.06 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter. 

The EIA currently estimates that fuel ethanol blending averaged 930,000 barrels per day in 2024, up from the December estimate of 920,000 barrels per day. Fuel ethanol blending is expected to remain unchanged at 930,000 barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026.

The EIA also maintained its outlook that net imports of fuel ethanol averaged -120,000 barrels in 2024 and will remain at that level in 2025. Net imports of fuel ethanol are also expected to average -120,000 barrels per day in 2026.