Biofuel to make up 6% of road transport by 2030

Biofuel demand is forecast to expand to 6% of forecasted road transport energy demand in 2030, driven by policies and planned project additions, according to data from the International Energy Agency.

The 6% share will be equivalent to 5.3 exajoules, the IEA said in its December report The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport.

Road transport accounted for nearly all liquid biofuels use in 2022 and this will tail off only slightly to 98% by 2030, the IEA said, following comments on biofuels demand in its October World Energy Outlook.

In October, the IEA said that biofuels accounted for 2.2 million b/d of oil demand in 2022, compared to 41.3 million b/d of road transport demand and equivalent to 5% of that, compared to 3 million b/d of biofuels demand or 7% of total road transport expected in 2030.

“Expanding biofuels beyond 9 EJ would require other feedstocks that are available in larger quantities and do not compete for land resources for food and feed production,” the December IEA said, as reported by S&P Global.

These include new feedstocks compatible with existing technologies that can be grown on marginal land or as cover crops with current estimates at near 8 EJ of liquid biofuel potential.

Global biodiesel demand is to continue its growth and set to reach more than 1.4 million b/d in 2025, up from roughly 1 million b/d in 2022 and less than 600,000 b/d ten years ago, analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights said. The bulk of this will be for blending in road diesel, they said.