Demand for clean ammonia will increase 3-fold by 2050: Study

Demand for clean ammonia as shipping fuel will increase rapidly between 2030 and 2050. Blue hydrogen will become dominant source by 2050 says an EU-funded study.

According to the study, 76% of that clean ammonia will be produced from blue ammonia, and only 24% from green hydrogen by mid-century. 

Th study says, 200 MTPA of ammonia will be required as a feedstock for chemicals such as fertilisers and explosives by 2050.

Ammonia would not be used at all for electricity generation, either alone or in co-firing with coal or natural gas, because that would require an “unrealistic cost assumption”, the study says.

The maritime sector will only use green or blue ammonia because the only reason ammonia will be used in shipping will be the ability to declare it as clean.

The study states that the cost of blue and green ammonia will be similar in 2050, once both technologies’ cost learning curves flatten after 2040.

Existing grey and brown ammonia facilities can be converted to blue ammonia with relatively lower capex costs, the study explains.

The conversion of grey/brown ammonia production to blue is a faster process than going through all the stages of project development for building a new green ammonia production. Therefore, blue ammonia production is likely to be larger than the announced number of blue and green ammonia projects in the pipeline indicates.

Due to competition with other clean fuels, such as methanol and biofuels, ammonia will only supply about 35% of all maritime fuels in 2050 in DNV’s most likely future scenario, but would contribute 60% in a less likely Paris-compliant net-zero emissions by 2050 future.

The study does not discuss the emissions intensity of green or blue ammonia, with the latter dependent on carbon capture equipment that is expected to still leak anywhere from 1-20% of the CO2 generated from methane reforming, depending on the technology used.