DNV: Regulatory uncertainty demands fleet strategies built for multiple futures

Regulatory uncertainty is increasing pressure on shipowners to make investment decisions that remain viable across multiple future scenarios. According to DNV’s 10th Maritime Forecast to 2050, stronger global regulatory signals could accelerate the uptake of energy-efficiency measures, enabling the global fleet to consume up to 25% less energy by 2050 compared to a scenario where regulation is driven by regions.

The report examines four regulatory scenarios, ranging from adoption of the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF) in its current form to its outright rejection, which could lead to a period of prolonged regulatory gridlock, and explores the implications of these outcomes for fuel demand, energy efficiency uptake, and long-term fleet fuel and technology strategies.

Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, CEO Maritime, DNV, said ships ordered today will operate well beyond 2050, but many of the factors shaping their future performance remain uncertain. She said the strongest message of this year’s report is that dealing with uncertainty and preparing for multiple possible futures remains one of the most important strategic capabilities for owners.

While significant progress has been made in expanding alternative-fuel capabilities of vessels, scaling fuel production depends on confidence that demand will materialise. DNV projects shipping demand for low-GHG fuels to range from 4 to 22 Mtoe by 2030 and 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on regulatory outcomes, with uptake also shaped by future adoption of shore power, plug-in hybridisation, nuclear power and onboard carbon capture systems. Current project pipelines indicate a maximum global supply of 270 Mtoe by 2030, although actual volumes are likely to be lower due to project delays and other uncertainties, with shipping needing to compete with other industries for its share.

Øyvind Sekkesæter, lead author of the Maritime Forecast to 2050, said scenarios explored in this year’s report show how different regulatory futures can lead to very different outcomes in energy efficiency uptake, fuel demand and consequently GHG emissions. He said that by testing fuel and technology choices across multiple scenarios, shipowners can identify strategies that create value today while preserving flexibility as regulation, fuel availability, prices and technologies evolve, with the strategies each owner chooses also dependent on fleet type and operating context.

Reducing energy consumption could deliver benefits regardless of which future fuel ultimately prevails, lowering bunker expenditure and exposure to carbon costs without forcing owners to predict the eventual regulatory outcome, increasingly making efficiency a strategic hedge rather than simply an environmental measure. The much more difficult issue remains how a genuine market for low-GHG marine fuels will emerge, with ammonia, methanol, low-GHG methane, biofuels and synthetic fuels all competing for a role, though widespread adoption depends on far more than whether engines can burn them.

To help stakeholders navigate this uncertainty, the report introduces a scenario-based framework that helps shipowners evaluate fleet strategies across multiple futures and identify pathways that balance cost, risk and flexibility. DNV said the industry needs greater clarity and alignment among stakeholders to provide the confidence required for long-term investment, while shipowners in the meantime need strategies that deliver benefits today while remaining resilient across a range of regulatory and market outcomes.