Global fossil fuel use to skyrocket before falling

A new climate study by BloombergNEF (BNEF) shows that there might be hope for reparative action, even though it might take slightly longer. The 2022 BNEF New Energy Outlook report assesses how the energy systems of nine critical countries that make up 63% of global emissions will likely progress in two scenarios in the coming years. The results are interesting, to say the least.

The report describes the first scenario as the “Economic Transition Scenario” (ETS), where no new policy action has helped accelerate the current transition. In other words, this illustrates green energy technology to continue evolving and expanding at the same breakneck speed we’ve observed over the past decade, unaided by amplified climate policy action.

While this sounds like business as usual, the BNEF report outlines many crucial wins in the next few decades. By 2050, we can expect wind and solar power — two exemplary sources headlining the push towards green power generation and away from fossil fuels — to account for 75% of the world’s power generation.

Additionally, the report projects that major polluters such as global coal, oil and gas use to peak and fall drastically over the next few decades, signalling our transition into the next phase of clean power generation.

However, since no new policy has clamped down on the exorbitant industrial emissions, we are still likely to miss the Paris warming goals by a long shot, reaching record highs of 2.6°C global warming by 2050.

To minimise the damage, the paper describes the “Net Zero Scenario” (NZS), which could help abate warming to 1.77°C by 2050. However, this will require an unprecedented amount of drastic changes in the fabric of global energy systems, as well as through extensive policy change.

Interestingly, the report outlines that despite the gigantic task, India, China and Indonesia could easily meet their emission targets to achieve both ETS and NZS by 2030, which is a massive win since these are some of the largest polluters in the world today.

While these countries are likely to take very distinct pathways towards net zero, developing nations such as India and Indonesia are more likely to see emissions rise over the next decade, while developed ones like the US, UK, France, Germany, Japan and Australia see extensive drops.

However, adopting the NZS could be tricky (but doable) due to the sheer amount of changes required. To make this viable, we will need to switch over 90% of power generation from fossil fuels to wind, solar, and other renewables by 2050. This transition will account for half of all abated emissions over the next thirty years.