Shipping’s 2030 Green Fuel Goal at Risk as Vessel Orders and Finance Weaken

International shipping faces a growing risk of missing its 2030 zero-emission fuel goal as regulatory uncertainty weakens investment, despite advances in alternative-fuel vessels and bunkering infrastructure.

An assessment released at New York Climate Week on 22 September 2026 identifies delayed global rules as a major obstacle to accelerating maritime decarbonisation.

The report, Climate Action in Shipping: Progress towards Shipping’s 2030 Breakthrough, was produced by the University College London (UCL) Energy Institute and the Getting to Zero Coalition. It examines progress towards scalable zero-emission fuels (SZEF) supplying at least 5% of international shipping’s fuel consumption by 2030, with an ambition to reach 10%.

Its assessment covers technology and supply, demand, finance, policy and civil society. The findings show that technical advances have continued, but the commercial and regulatory conditions needed for widespread deployment remain insufficient.

Why are vessel orders falling behind?

Methanol-capable tonnage in service more than tripled during 2025, rising from 2.3 million to 7.7 million gross tonnes. Deliveries included 56 newbuilds representing 5.4 million gross tonnes.

The share of the active global fleet capable of using scalable zero-emission fuels consequently increased from 0.41% to 0.77%.

Future fleet commitments weakened, however. The share of SZEF-capable vessels in ordered tonnage declined from 9.5% to 5.7%.

Under current ordering trends, the report estimates that vessels could have capacity to consume around 0.45 exajoules of these fuels by 2030, below the approximately 0.6 exajoules needed for the minimum target. A return to stronger ordering growth could raise potential consumption capacity to around 0.70 exajoules.

How are ports and fuel supplies progressing?

Ports offering methanol bunkering increased from 19 to 29, representing growth of approximately 53%. Ammonia bunkering and vessel trials also advanced, alongside the expansion of methanol-capable shipping capacity.

Fuel production remains substantially below the required trajectory. Output of scalable zero-emission fuels was under 0.02 exajoules in 2025, against a benchmark of 0.10 exajoules.

Under the report’s low- and medium-growth scenarios, production would cross the 0.6-exajoule threshold only between 2032 and 2035. Expected 2030 low-carbon hydrogen output from operating projects and those reaching final investment decision nevertheless increased fivefold to 4.2 million tonnes annually.

What is holding back green shipping investment?

Shipping-specific sustainable debt issuance fell from US$3.4 billion in 2024 to US$3 billion in 2025. This contrasted with improved climate alignment across disclosed shipping finance portfolios.

The report links weaker demand signals to companies delaying commitments while awaiting clearer global regulation. Jesse Fahnestock, director of decarbonisation at the Global Maritime Forum, said adoption of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework could help restore momentum.

The assessment considers the 2030 goal achievable, provided regulatory progress is accompanied by faster industry investment and national action.

What does the IMO framework seek to achieve?

The IMO’s 2023 greenhouse gas strategy seeks net-zero emissions from international shipping by or around 2050. It calls for zero or near-zero emission technologies, fuels and energy sources to provide at least 5%, striving for 10%, of shipping’s energy use by 2030.

The proposed Net-Zero Framework combines a marine fuel emissions standard with an emissions pricing mechanism. Draft legal text was finalised in April 2025, but the October 2025 adoption meeting was adjourned for one year.

The IMO also requires attention to emissions across a fuel’s lifecycle, including production and use aboard ships. This distinction means alternative-fuel capability alone does not establish the emissions performance of the fuel actually consumed.