DNV Forecast Signals Shift in Maritime Energy Transition

DNV’s latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 indicates that global shipping is entering a new stage in its energy transition, marked by investment decisions, greater fleet preparedness, and regulatory momentum.

With the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework approved but awaiting adoption in October, shipowners are beginning to move from planning to implementation. The number of vessels capable of operating on alternative fuels is projected to nearly double by 2028.

By 2030, these ships could consume up to 50 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of low-greenhouse gas (GHG) fuels each year. This figure is twice the estimated requirement for meeting the IMO’s 2030 emissions reduction target. However, current consumption of low-GHG fuels stands at only 1 Mtoe, underscoring the need for fuel suppliers and infrastructure providers to accelerate production and distribution.

“The stage is set for the next phase of the maritime energy transition,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV Maritime. “The IMO’s Net-Zero Framework has imperfections and greater clarity is urgently needed around how the collected money will be spent. It is already influencing investment decisions, operational choices and fuel strategies across the industry. Shipowners will adjust their strategic priorities pending the October IMO meeting, which will lay the foundation for the years and decades ahead.”

The ninth edition of the Maritime Forecast to 2050 evaluates fuel pathways, technologies, and regulations shaping shipping’s decarbonization. The report highlights several approaches to bridging the gap between vessel readiness and fuel supply:

Utilizing existing fuel infrastructure for biodiesel and bio-LNG, supported by flexible custody chain models, to improve access and uptake.

Expanding the use of energy-efficiency measures on newbuilds, delivering immediate emissions reductions without requiring new supply chains.

Deploying onboard carbon capture (OCC). The report suggests that if 20 major ports were equipped with CO₂ offloading infrastructure, up to 75 million tonnes of CO₂ could be removed annually, offsetting the equivalent of 25 Mtoe of low-GHG fuels.

Scaling maritime wind energy. Wind-assisted propulsion systems are gaining traction, with vessel owners and technology providers reporting 5 to 20 percent reductions in fuel consumption.

“The industry has made real technical progress in recent years,” said Eirik Ovrum, Lead Author of the report. “But these solutions are still operating in silos. To deliver impact, they need to be integrated into fleet strategies, supported by infrastructure, and recognized in compliance frameworks. That’s where the next phase of work must focus.”